Expert betting for the Broncos vs. the Panthers, more

Follow Chris Raybon in the Applying actions to get all his betting choices.


NFL Week 12 odds and picks

Take
Panthers +2.5 (bet on a pick’em)
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Time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: The Broncos are 0-4 in real road games (their 21-17 win over Jacksonville came at a neutral site). Given the lackluster quality of their game and quarterback training, Denver simply needs every advantage they can get. This is amplified by the injuries sustained on both sides of the ball.

On offense, the Broncos are without starting left tackle Garrett Bolles (IR; leg), starting center Lloyd Cushenberry III (IR; groin) and starting wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and KJ Hamler (hamstring).

The loss of Bolles and Cushenberry makes things easier for a Carolina pass rush that has come alive for 3.0 sacks per game over the last four. The Panthers are averaging 1.4 sacks per game over the first seven games. And without Jeudy and Hamler, it should be easier for Carolina to take down Courtland Sutton with top corner Jaycee Horn, who allowed 3.6 yards per target and a 31.3 passer rating on 320 coverage snaps.

On defense, the Broncos lack key contributors across the board. Starting corner Ronald Darby (ACL) and nickel CB K’Waun Williams (knee) are on IR. Safety Caden Sterns (hip) is also on injured reserve, which turned out to be a net loss as Sterns (76.7 PFF) had edged out Justin Simmons (70.0), who returned just as Sterns fell.

The once vaunted Denver Pass rush fell to 15th in pressure rate (22.7%) and 16th in bag rate (6.8%) without Randy Gregory (IR; knee) and Bradley Chubb (traded), who combined for 45 pressures and eight sacks.

Like PJ Walker, Sam Darnold should be an upgrade on Baker Mayfield. Mayfield just couldn’t play in that system, recording a league-worst 60.0 percent completion rate from a clean pocket. For context, Walker was 64.8 percent and Darnold was 66.7 percent last season.

With Mayfield on the bench, the Panthers offense should be able to do enough to outrun a Denver team that is averaging 14.7 points per game and held to 16 points or less in eight of 10. matches.

The Panthers are averaging 22.2 points in starts other than Mayfield, with at least 21 points in four of five. They also topped 16 points in eight of Darnold’s 11 starts last season.

According to our Action Labs data, domestic dogs with a total below 42 are 44-29-1 (60%) ATS since 2018.

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Take
Less than 43.5 (up to 41)
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Time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: This game is presented as a defensive battle.

When the Ravens are in attack, they want to run the ball (30.4 hasty attempts per game; seventh) and shorten the game (average of 30.36 seconds between games; 31st). Mike Caldwell’s defense performed well against opposing ground games, ranking ninth in cleared pass rate (39.3%) and 12th in expected runs added per run (-0.0184).

Even if the Ravens want to take advantage of a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, they’ll be forced to do so with a not-so-nice passing game.

They will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle), whose pass blocking rating of 90.0 PFF ranks second among 77 qualifiers tackles. They continue to be without No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Bateman (IR; foot) and have just lost No. 2 tight end Isaiah Likely (ankle) – who helped make up for Bateman’s loss with 18 caught, 206 yards and 2 touchdowns – for at least this week. Their current top two wide receivers, Devin Duvernay (hamstring) and Demarcus Robinson (hip), are both listed as questionable after missing practice time this week.

The Ravens’ defense has gone to another level since the acquisition of linebacker Roquan Smith and the return of rusher Tyus Bowser, allowing just 16 points in two games. Baltimore should be able to handle a lackluster Jags offense that ranks 21st in points per game (21.6).

Opposing offenses often struggle to deal with the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, which helped the Jaguars allow just 14 points per game at home to 24.8 away.

According to our Action Labs data, the under is 10-2 (83%) all-time in Trevor Lawrence’s home starts, covering an average of 8.5 runs. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season.

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Take
Browns +3.5 (to +3)
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Time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Rain and winds over 12 mph are expected in Cleveland, helping the Browns’ rushing offense which ranks fourth in DVOA.

Their biggest weakness has been defending the rush (32nd in DVOA), which is less of an issue against the Bucs as they rank last in rushing yards per game (70.1) and rush (3.1).

The Bucs have won by more than three points just four times this season, while the Browns have lost by more than three points just three times despite going 3-7. The Browns have scored at least 23 points in six of 10 games while the Bucs have had under 23 points in nine of 10.

As I mentioned before, 3.5+ underdogs with 47 or fewer total games are 49-22 (69%) ATS this season.

And no matter the total, the fading public Favorites by more than one field goal, like the Bucs, who have recovered 64% of bets since Saturday afternoon, have been even more profitable. Dogs receiving no more than half of the bet slips score 46-19-1 (71%) ATS, according to our Action Labs data.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their betslip into FanDuel Sportsbook.


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