A Thursday game for the Dallas Cowboys is as much a Thanksgiving Day tradition as drunken uncles and clogged toilets.
The Cowboys hold their annual holiday showcase, hosting rival New York Giants at AT&T Stadium in NFL Week 12.
Dallas couldn’t have looked better in a 40-3 flogging of Minnesota last Sunday, which pushes the lead up for this NFC East matchup. New York also has a long list of injuries to come in this short week, contributing to the line change.
I’m breaking down the spread and total Over/Under for this second of three Thanksgiving Day games and giving it my all NFL picks and predictions for the Giants at the Cowboys on Nov. 24. Gobble, gobble.
Best Giants vs Cowboys Odds
Giants vs Cowboys Picks and Predictions
Week 11 saw Dak Prescott has done his best since returning from an injury at the start of the season which cost him the first game of the calendar.
Prescott threw for 286 yards against Minnesota, completed 88% of his passes and connected for two touchdowns – most of that damage done in just three quarters of football as the Cowboys eased off during the 40-3 victory.
Prescott has been the driving force behind this Cowboys offense that has racked up 117 points over the past three games. Dak threw for just under 800 yards and seven touchdowns in that span, ranking top 6 in many advanced QB metrics during that streak.
He can add to that resume and his legend in Big D with a strong performance at Thanksgiving this Thursday. The table is set for Prescott to feast against a Giants defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass and could have several bodies in the secondary.
New York will be without corner Adoree’ Jackson as CB on the other side, Fabian Moreau, missed practice with a rib injury. The departure of free safety Dane Belton is questionable after being restricted on Tuesday, as is booked SS Jason Pinnock, and the secondary is still without FS Xavier McKinney.
Prescott has several options in the passing game, with WRs Lamb CeeDee and Michael Gallup seeks to exploit these New York high school weak points on the outside. tight end Dalton Schultz enjoyed the return of Dak and RB Tony Pollard quickly became one of the best double threats in the league, after a day of receiving for 109 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota.
Prescott’s passing yardage prop for Week 12 sits at 242.5 yards. While that might not seem like much, the double-digit gap game scenario could see plenty of transfers and a killer clock from Dallas in the second half. On top of that, the G-Men tend to play away from football, follow a methodical pace, and rank among the top possession offenses in the nation.
Instead, I’m going over Over Dak’s touchdown total of 1.5 TD assists at -150. He’s topped that total in each of the past three games, faces a depleted NY passing defense, and is playing the fast lane inside AT&T Stadium with a rising total.
Prescott should also receive plenty of touches, thanks to the Dallas defense. The Cowboys’ pass rush is among the most disruptive in the NFL, leading the league in sacks and second in rushing rate. The Giants offensive line is just as battered as the secondary, with four starters touting questionable status over the short week.
Even healthy, that New York pass protection has QB Daniel Jones feeling pressure on 28.9% dropouts — the second-highest in the NFL. Dallas is also the seventh-ranked defense in third conversions allowed, handing the ball back to Prescott and the offense, which has played an average of 68.7 times over the past three games.
my best bet: Dak Prescott passing touchdowns Over -1.5 (-150)
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Giants vs Cowboys Spread Analysis
Dallas opened as low as 8 points at home for this Thursday game and quickly jumped to -8.5 on Sunday night.
The public perception of these two teams couldn’t be more opposite, with the Cowboys coming off an impressive Vikings outburst on the road in Week 11 and the Giants being rolled by Detroit at home last weekend.
Adding in the G-Men’s injury issues and “America’s team” public appeal, that gap jumped to -9.5 Wednesday morning. New York has several missing or questionable starters in the secondary while the offensive line has four starters listed as questionable, reserves also in the air, as well as TE starter Daniel Bellinger.
The Cowboys’ pass rush is among the best in the league, possessing the second-highest squeezing rate per setback and a league-leading 35 sacks — including seven against Minnesota last week. Linebacker Micah Parsons is expected to play with an ankle injury Thursday while DE DeMarcus Lawrence is listed as questionable after missing practice with a foot injury and illness.
Dallas has been a money pit in the last 11 Thanksgiving Day games (1-10 ATS) but enters Week 12 with a 7-3 ATS tally on the season. The Giants have an identical 7-3 ATS tally but have failed to cover in two of their last three games, including the 31-18 loss to the Lions as 3-point favorites last Sunday.
DraftKings sports betting returns 58% of the bet count and 54% of the handful taking the points with the Giants on Wednesday morning. Covers Consensus shows 52% of the choices supporting New York on the road.
Giants vs Cowboys Over/Under Analysis
That Over/Under total opened as low as 43.5 points and has jumped as much as two points since Sunday night, hitting 45.5 points on Wednesday.
The Cowboys offense was on full display in the win over Minnesota, racking up 40 points with a two-way offense on the ground and in the air. Dallas has picked up the pace on offense the past three games, with Prescott returning to form after missing the first half of the season through injury. The Cowboys are No. 3 in the EPA per game the past three weeks, amassing a total of 117 points in that span.
New York isn’t as powerful with points but is very good with football. The Giants are 10th in EPA per play and are methodically moving up the field, fielding one of the slowest tempos in the league with a play every 28.4 seconds.
However, the G-Men might be forced to pick up the pace given the large gap and rising total. If the Cowboys follow this play script, New York will play from behind and be forced to go faster with more passing – which, in turn, will put the Giants at the mercy of that dangerous Dallas defense.
New York’s stopping unit hasn’t been the best, ranked 27th in DVOA, but doesn’t allow many runs due to the fast pace of offense with the football chewing up possession and limiting the time that opponents have on the attack. The secondary is very thin heading into Thanksgiving with Jackson out, two other starters listed as questionable and reserve corps also damaged.
New York is 2-7-1 Over/Under this season while Dallas owns a 3-6-1 O/U tally. These NFC East rivals have produced a 5-2-1 O/U tally in their last eight head-to-head meetings.
Giants vs Cowboys Betting Trend You Need to Know
While the Cowboys are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thanksgiving Day games, they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Giants. find more NFL Betting Trends for Giants vs. Cowboys.
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Giants vs Cowboys game information
|Location:||AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas|
|Date:||Thursday, November 24, 2022|
|To start up:||4:30 p.m. ET|
|Opening dimensions:||Cowboys -7.5, 43 O/U|
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