The control of the house remains on the razor’s edge. Here’s how it could break.

Democrats have closed the gap in many of those races over the past 24 hours. The Associated Press called seven new congressional races on Friday and two on Saturday, all for Democrats. This included headquarters in southwestern Washington state which POLITICO’s election forecast had rated “lean Republican” and where Republicans failed to mount a strong defense after their incumbent lost in a primary to a Trump-backed challenger.

The balance of power in the House currently stands at 211 Republicans and 202 Democrats – but, functionally, it is more narrowly divided. The unnamed race list includes a California contest where both general election candidates are Democrats. And awarding about a dozen races where one party is clearly favored — but where the AP has not appealed — adds seven more seats to the Democratic Party tally and four races to Republicans.

That would put Republicans at 215 seats, just three seats from a majority, while Democrats would be Seven short seats. But with 10 seats up in the air — six with Republicans leading and four with Democrats leading — both parties still have a chance, though the GOP is still favored.

Here’s a district-by-district breakdown of uncalled races as of Saturday afternoon, and what could happen next:


Arizona-01 (Before November 8 POLITICO Election Forecast note: Lean Republican): Rep. David Schweikert is behind Democrat Jevin Hodge by about 2,500 votes. That’s after Schweikert made gains late Saturday in Maricopa County, which includes the entire district. He will need the state’s trend towards a “redshift” later in the count to continue.

Arizona-06 (Lean Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani holds only a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel – about 1,400 votes – in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day, including Saturday, when Engel halved his deficit raw voices. It’s unclear whether the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely.

California-13 (Lean Republican): This one looks like a nail-biter: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes Saturday afternoon, with just 61% of the ballots, according to the Associated Press.

California-22 (throw): Is it already seen for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic opponent on election night in 2018 that the AP declared him the winner – only to withdraw the call when Valadao fell behind weeks later. This time, Valadao (who eventually returned to Congress after winning in 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down from 8 points on Tuesday night.

California-41 (Lean Republican): Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s unclear how late-counted ballots will shatter.

California-47 (Democratic Lean): Rep. democrat. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 3 percentage points as late ballots in Orange County helped extend what was an extremely narrow lead on Election Day.

California-49 (throw): Rep. democrat. mike levin opened a 5-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott in a race that is poised to move into the Democratic column.

Colorado-03 (probably Republican): Rep. Lauren Boebert is up about 1,100 votes over Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch must use Boebert’s advantage in the final polls to have any chance of overtaking her in the likely recount, which will happen if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other. (Boebert currently leads by 0.4 points).

New York-22 (throw): Republican Brandon Williams has a nearly 4,000 vote lead over Democrat Francis Conole, who hopes the mail-in ballots yet to be counted in Syracuse will be enough to propel him to the top.

Oregon-06 (throw up): Democrat Andrea Salinas has a 4,000 vote lead over Republican Mike Erickson, with 79% of the constituency returns.

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