Impeachment fallout, Trump endorsements, and a major abortion test: What to watch in Tuesday’s election

Results in some of those races, especially Arizona and Washington, may not be known Tuesday night if the races are close. Here’s what to watch for as the main results unfold.

Set the battlefield of the Senate

Tuesday’s Republican primary will finalize some of the last remaining questions on this year’s Senate map, chiefly who will face the Democratic senator from Arizona. kelly mark in what will be one of the most competitive Senate races this cycle.

And in Missouri, voters will choose from a field packed with Republican candidates vying to replace the outgoing Republican senator. Roy Bluntincluding disgraced former Governor Eric Greitens, State Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Rep. vicky hartzler.

While Schmitt has taken the lead in recent public polls, Trump issued a vague last-minute endorsement Monday night for “ERIC,” which actually amounts to a double endorsement from Greitens and Schmitt.

Though the red state should be safe for Republicans in November’s Senate race, Republican operatives have long warned that a Greitens nomination, given his background that includes allegations of sexual assault and domestic violence, could cost the party. a seat in the Senate.

If Greitens prevails in Tuesday’s primary, Missouri could become a state where Democrats choose to spend big, a strategy that would force Republicans to do the same to maintain their lead.

Arizona’s Republican Senate primary has come down to two candidates: Blake Masters, the Peter Thiel protégé who secured Trump’s endorsement in June, and Jim Lamon, a solar energy executive who has put at least $14 million of his own funds in the race.

In the past month, the Masters have emerged as a clear favorite, according to public polls, though Lamon has continued to pour heavily into the campaign to keep pace with a Thiel-funded pro-Masters super PAC. Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, whom Trump has criticized for not helping overturn the results of the 2020 election, is in third place in the race.

Washington state voters will also advance two candidates from its all-party primary system. Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley is the only well-funded Republican candidate on the ballot, and the Democratic senator. patty murray it already started posting attack ads against her earlier this summer.

Governors of swing states on the ballot

Voters are also settling the Republican gubernatorial races in two major battlegrounds: Arizona and Michigan.

Arizona’s race has unraveled like many other Republican gubernatorial primaries this year, with Trump lining up on one side and the state’s top Republicans pushing another candidate.

Trump has endorsed former TV host Kari Lake in the Arizona open primary. Meanwhile, limited-term Governor Doug Ducey, co-chairman of the Republican Governors Association, and former Vice President Mike Pence are among those supporting former state Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson in a contentious primary that has drawn both Trump like Pence to the state. Lake has led most recent public polls in her career.

On the Democratic side, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has been seen as the favorite in a primary that also includes former Nogales Mayor Marco López.

In the race to replace Hobbs to become the state’s next director of elections, Republicans are about to nominate state legislator Mark Finchem, a noted election conspiracy theorist. Trump has endorsed Finchem, while Ducey endorsed ad executive Beau Lane.

Tuesday’s second big gubernatorial primary comes in Michigan, where Republicans are looking for their nominee to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

This contest has been one of the messiest in recent memory. Leading candidates were kicked off the ballot after signature fraud was discovered on their nominating petitions, and the FBI arrested another contender in the crowded field for his alleged involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill. from the USA

But there, Trump and the establishment came to an apparent détente. Many of the state’s powerful Republicans, including the DeVos family, endorsed conservative media personality Tudor Dixon, and Trump did the same late last week. with a late endorsement.

The first trial of abortion

Kansas voters will have their first opportunity to weigh in directly on abortion policy at the polls following the Supreme Court’s decision. dobbs decision, via the “Value Them Both” state constitutional amendment on Tuesday’s ballot.

While the ballot amendment would not create new restrictions on abortion, it would open the way for state lawmakers to do so. It has been the subject of a intense campaign on both sidesand the results could be close.

Both abortion rights advocates and anti-abortion activists see the Kansas ballot initiative as just the first of many to come. It’s one of at least five abortion-related ballot measures across the country this year, and others are already being planned in states across the country for future elections.

The race is also an early setup for the state’s gubernatorial race. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is arguably the most threatened Democratic incumbent in the country, while state Attorney General Derek Schmidt will secure the Republican nomination on Tuesday. The results of Tuesday’s ballot measure could determine some of the central issues in the general election there.

Three pro-impeachment Republicans take on voters

Three of the six pro-impeachment Republicans who have decided to seek reelection will face voters — and the wrath of Trump — on Tuesday.

Most Endangered: Rep. Peter Mejer (R-Mich.), the only freshman to vote to hold Trump responsible for the Jan. 6 attacks. He faces a strong challenge from Trump-backed John Gibbs, but Meijer has a big financial advantage. He and his allies have spent $2.4 million on ads to bolster the headline.

Gibbs has spent just $26,000 on cable and digital ads, but received surprise airplay from the House Democratic campaign arm. Democrats target the seat, which Biden won by 9 points, in the fall, and controversially nosy in the primary hoping Gibbs would be easier to beat.

In the state of Washington, the Republican representatives. and new house Y Jaime Herrera Beuter both are facing Trump-backed challengers in their all-party primaries, and both have received millions in aid from established groups. Herrera Beutler and the Winning for Women Action Fund, a group that supports Republican women, together spent more than five times as much on the air as Joe Kent, his main rival.

Newhouse and his allies spent $1.3 million on television ads; his main challenger, 2020 gubernatorial candidate Loren Culp, issued none. Muddying the waters are several other non-Trump-backed Republican hopefuls in the mix in both races.

The three races will test whether the GOP’s outrage over an impeachment vote a year and a half ago can outweigh a rush of spending for the incumbent on television.

There’s also another major incumbent primary to watch: a member-versus-member battle in Michigan between House Democrats. Haley Stevens Y Andy Levin. Redistricting forced them to come together, after Levin left behind the new version of his current position to run against Stevens. The confrontation has turned in a proxy war among national political forces, with pro-Israel groups spending money on the race and national progressives, including Sen. bernie sanders (I-Vt.) entering to make way for Levin.

Preparing the battlefield of the House

Both parties will also elect candidates in more than a half-dozen swing seats in four states.

In the state of Washington, several Republicans are fighting for second place in the general election with the Democratic representative. Kim Schrier. Top contenders include Jesse Jensen, the 2020 nominee; Reagan Dunn, a former federal prosecutor whose mother previously represented the area in Congress; and Matt Larkin, attorney and businessman.

In Kansas, the Republican Amanda Adkins and the Democratic representative. Sharice Davids they head to a rematch in a suburban Kansas City seat.

Arizona will finalize matchups for four potentially competitive races in the fall. A host of Republicans are vying for the go-ahead to take on Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran after redistricting turned his huge northern district into a seat Trump would have won by 9 points. State Representative Walt Blackman and Trump-backed veteran Eli Crane, two election deniers, are the most prominent candidates.

In the Phoenix area, businessman Kelly Cooper and attorney Tanya Wheeless are fighting for a chance to take on the Democratic representative. Greg Stanton. In a nearby district, the beleaguered Rep. david schweiker he faces a well-funded primary challenger and several Democrats as well.

And in south Tucson, Republicans are hoping for a win from Juan Ciscomani, a former top aide to Gov. Doug Ducey. State Sen. Kristen Engel and State Rep. Daniel Hernandez are running on the Democratic side. The seat was vacated by the withdrawal of the Democratic representative. ann kirkpatrick.

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